Many of us would probably like to put 2009 behind us due to the recession that has put a stranglehold on the entire world this year. So let’s go ahead and do just that for a minute by looking forward to what the future might have in store for ATCA.

The ATCA market has remained resilient relative to other embedded computing markets such as industrial and other communications segments in 2009 due to strong adoption by Tier 2/3 Network Equipment Providers (NEPs) – the market players continuing to drive innovation through the downturn.

However, resilience is relative and this year it has meant that the market has not contracted by double digit rates; the ATCA market will at best remain flat from 2008 to 2009 and at worst will lose a couple of points. Resiliency in that form is little consolation to those engaged in the ATCA ecosystem and I’m sure they are waiting impatiently for strong growth to return to the market.

So, what might we expect for next year?

I think that 2010 will be better than 2009 and growth will return to the ATCA market, however it will not be explosive. Recoveries have to start somewhere and while NEPs will have to innovate their way out of the downturn in 2010 they are still likely to remain somewhat cautious, especially the Tier 1s.

What excites me even more than the prospects for 2010 are the prospects for 2011. In 2011, widespread 4G rollout (whether it be LTE or WiMAX) will begin in earnest. I believe the deployment of 4G gear will be a driving force for the ATCA market unlike any we’ve seen so far. In fact, this will be the first time since ATCA’s creation that entire new networks – and accompanying brand new network gear – will be deployed.

Now, we each know that ATCA will not capture all of the 4G rollout, but even if it gets a small slice of this complete network upgrade, it will be a major driver for strong growth as ATCA systems will have the opportunity to ship in quantities not seen to date.